on low expectations and recessions

it has been a long time since i wrote down here. university takes me all the time. considering the difficulty, the quantity and the competitiveness, i still continue to be highly motivated. in this way, i've lately developed the idea of low expectations - work hard, look for incentives, have low expectations - in order for the negative shocks to go to zero and the positive shocks to go hopefully up. this is the main joke for us, the economics students in lausanne :)

this is, mainly what happens now on the international markets. as the big "black swan" of the crisis and now of the recession was not predicted, now everybody behaves and believes in consequence: expects what is worse, does not take risks and waits for better days...

now, do not consider that my academic life is in crisis and i expect what is worse. what i wanted to say by this comparison is that when the bias between expectations and what really happens goes up, psychologically your expectations go down. the comparison is definitely not perfect -in my case, in order for the expectations to go up and the bias to reduce, all depends on me and also somehow on the sample i am part of :)

thus, now i go back to work. unfortunately, the markets still have to wait, considering that predictions for them are quite bad....