veronica preotu's blog

directions of thought

2011-12-13T21:26:00.000+01:00

an example of how panics self-fulfills. what makes some more optimistic/pessimistic is a random walk process.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7017ee50-2581-11e1-9cb0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1gRYr3LXy

a decent viewpoint on the diversity of crises' causes. it's not about whom is to blame, but rather what should be done!

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stiglitz146/English

and a proposal for the ECB (quite reasonable I assume - again everything is about incentives - in this case, what the central bank allows private banks to do):

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203893404577098252697593684.html?mod=rss_opinion_main&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wsj%2Fxml%2Frss%2F3_7041+(WSJ.com%3A+Opinion)

why econ?

2011-12-09T14:41:00.002+01:00

During a recent doctoral course, we were asked by the professor why we are in econ. Used to go with the flow, it was kind of a good mental exercise to practice. And, what is more, going back to simple, basic questions refills you with motivation to move on and follow your purpose.

Some interesting arguments showed up. The professor himself recalled he wanted to understand growth - "why some countries grow more than others?". Other colleagues coming from different corners of the world referred to their own countries' experiences: "I come from Russia and I wanted to understand the transition process", "I come from Argentina and I wanted to understand the big 90's crisis and the huge inflation we experienced". Some more philosophical answers referred to the morals of economic decisions, freedom, motivation and incentives.

So, I have got inspired and asked it to my master students. Why econ? Among answers, I recall arguments which went in the following directions: "I find of great importance to understand the economic policies the government implements and the motives which stay behind - they affect all of us", "I think it's very interesting to model the real world in a system of equations and find the equilibrium". Inspiring answers can arise from very basic questions. Keep it simple, as they say!

Myself, I also referred to my origins. Even if, on a more sincere tone, starting studying econ during bachelor was a random decision, like for the majority of my generation. But it was a lucky one - "appetite comes by eating"! So I answered something like: I come from Romania, where I find of great relevance the difference among generations - there are the young people, the 2.0./3.0 generation which seeks freedom and adors capitalist-like, right (center-right) policy decisions; and there is the old generation, which has the nostalgy of communism and still believes in the power of the government to create their well-being. The latter are those who prefer left (center-left) decisions and are ready to vote for the candidate who offers them a bundle of food, exactly prior to elections. There results a goverment and a set of policy measures which have to satisfy two types of consumers, two types of workers and, ultimately, two types of investors (rich people are mainly from the old generation, the so-called "people with network", who had THE information after the communism fall to "take the GOOD opportunities").

Now, when I try to put down my idea from then, some interesting research topics come up in my mind. What are the implications of this kind of arrangement on income inequality? Considering the assumption that there are two kind of consumers, workers, investors, could we model, in an overlapping generations setup, a more realistic equilibrium? Could there be implemented a set of policies which provides differentiated incentives for the two categories a la Akerlof or Spence?

and the nobel prize goes to... macroeconomics

2011-10-10T13:39:00.000+02:00

http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2011/press.html

akerlof's nobel prize speech

2011-10-02T12:56:00.000+02:00

http://www.nobelprize.org/mediaplayer/index.php?id=501

movies to watch to get the crisis

2011-07-17T13:48:00.000+02:00

Too Big to Fail - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVV6dzDOgQ0&NR=1

Inside Job - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzrBurlJUNk

wise quote

2011-05-06T17:07:00.000+02:00

“To act on the belief that we possess the knowledge and the power which enables us to shape the process of society entirely to our liking, knowledge which in fact we don’t possess, is likely to make us do much harm” (von Hayek, 1974)

solow on new econ rules

2011-04-03T15:01:00.001+02:00

http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2011/04/02/new-policy-ideas-from-robert-solow/

and for other ideas from the same event: http://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/res/index.htm

random thoughts: link macro and psychology

2011-03-16T16:57:00.001+01:00

I've been planning for a long time to put together what macro-economists argue about the future/present state of research in this field; and then to make some humble inferences on how I see this. Talking about the state of macro these days is somehow equivalent to talking about how the world looks like after the big financial crisis and trying to make up models which are closer to the real facts. Nothing spectacular until now, right? This is what each model has been trying to do so far!

For the moment, I have in mind these recent projections which say that the financial crisis will come back. And I dare to make a link with any down period a person may have in his life (either due to some illness or just depression coming from some bad habits in his thinking or behavior); let's call this depression. The guy goes to the doctor who tells him he should do that and that and then he follows the advice, he gets better, he is happier! But, at a certain point, he turns out to his bad habits from greed or temporary lack of self-discipline or whatever. And then, he may eventually get depressed again!

This is the same as financial markets and, respectively, as economies in general: something goes wrong, we try to repair it, it gets better, but then we turn back to bad habits and, eventually, the bad thing occurs again, maybe in another form or magnitude, but having the same underline cause. No learning effect? Of course, on short term, as we have a rather short term memory (a generation like period, let's say), we may be more precautionary. Some may argue that this is why history is written: for next generations to learn from past errors. But is this really the case?

Update: I did not intend to be pessimistic in any sense. I believe that by assuming our vulnerability as humans, society and economy in the end, we may be more closer to understanding our behavior and tackle the problems which we encounter and the weaknesses we deal with. Now, translating this in models, probably has already been tried to a certain extent and will undoubtedly be tried in the future. And in the end this is what keeps all social sciences so interesting: there are always models to improve, questions to ask, assumptions to relax or not, in order to represent a better picture of reality.

ken rogoff on project syndicate

2010-10-05T13:16:00.000+02:00

http://www.project-syndicate.org/series/the_unbound_economy/description

about the thesis experience

2010-09-18T17:29:00.000+02:00

master thesis msc in economics - 11th of june 2010 : explaining the retrenchment in global imbalances (during the recent financial crisis). great experience, ups and downs, sensible results:

a) Did Current Account (CA) deficit countries adjust more?
No, it was a global current account reversal!

b) What does explain the reduction in global imbalances?
Higher global CA imbalances (deficit/surplus) imply higher adjustments (increase/decrease in CA balance) –early warning system

c) Do economic and financial development explain cross-country differences in CA reversals?
-developing countries seem to have been obliged to adjust their CA more than
advanced economies, but real GDP matters only for some specifications
-bank leverage (claims/deposits) is relevant

d) Do trade and financial openness justify the retrenchment in external positions?
-trade openness remains significant for the 2008-2009 CA adjustment

lessons from working on the master thesis:
- concentrate on ideas - what do i want to show? where do i want, more or less, to arrive? - rather difficult to focus on these even after reading the literature and arranging the data
- keep it original - think about the subject and perceive it in my own manner
- read a lot, get idea, concentrating on keeping track: put things down even if you are not sure you will use them
- data: get through it, analyze it, feel it, keep the analysis simple and, only if still in time, try fancy things
- appreciate the learning process - redefine each day your target and thin if the step you are about to perform adds value and makes sense for the overall picture
- combine writing and scientific work, but still assume that when you have the results the writing comes very easily
- think of the best way to put down your knowledge and intuition - concentrate on trasmitting things nicely, simply and coherently

about doctoral studies

2010-09-18T17:10:00.000+02:00

these are old thoughts from when i was weighing between enrolling for a PhD program or going for a normal job in the econ research industry `ou ailleurs`. now things are settled: i've just started my PhD econ studies in lausanne and i am preparing my first TA experience in advanced macro: great challenges ahead.

as i have been missing from here, now i try to catch up with writing down - here are some pros and cons for the PhD studies:

- fits my way of being - idealistic (both in a positive and negative manner) - it's the same idea: targeting higher for going on and being better
- it's a way of working hard now for living better afterwards
- i like theory and finding its link with empirics (or real life)
- research is challenging (even if it can become just an ambition)
- it requires a great individual discipline - it means mostly working alone (or, more nicely said, on your own), while depending on the others' feedback (may involve a not very fair team work)
- the originality is the key - no matter if there's something that other people understand or other researchers look for, you obtaining the result or just you putting in practice the idea makes you the one who owns it

(to be completed while getting through the process - five years to come)

nice interview

2010-06-14T20:40:00.000+02:00

nice interview and econ resource:
http://argmax.com/stuff/stuff.php?name=interview.html

theory vs empirics

2010-05-15T23:59:00.001+02:00

this mendoza, quadrini, rios-rull (JPE 2009) makes me think again that theory is ten times nicer than empirics; it's true that sometimes you get really lost, but this time i feel like i would like to be one of those for which "applied econ is too difficult, so they concentrate on theory" (see phd comics).

anyway, my thesis goes in the empirics direction, trying to keep the intuition and less to look for fancy econometrics; time is a damn good pressure and hopefully my ally to finish it in time and do a decent job. so i leave fascinating equations for future work, hopefully...

btw, i have been missing this place...

conversations with leading economists (in the spare time)

2010-03-18T10:18:00.000+01:00

I found this book by chance in the library some weeks ago: "Conversations with leading economists" (Snowdon, Vane, Edward Elgar, 1999). Some inspiring remarks caught my eyes.

Blanchard:
"models are about clarifying your thoughts and explaining them to others";
"I like to think big - although not too big - and macroeconomics fulfils that need well";
"the main lessons I drew from the Great Depression are that aggregate demand can fall for no obvious reason ex ante, and that the adjustment mechanisms which are supposed to get the economy back on its feet can actually produce perverse effects";
"I suppose this tends to happen to many paradigms - they can die of old age even if they are right";
the consensus position on the core of macroeconomics today: "in the short run shifts in aggregate demand affect output and that in the medium and long run supply-side factors dominate";
East European transition: " I have first been struck by how you can have very large variations in output which have nothing to do with shifts in aggregate demand or monetary and fiscal policy"; the optimal sequencing of policies to ensure a smooth transition: "do not eliminate all subsidies at once, do not try stabilization if, politically you are not powerful enough, do not do privatization if price signals are still very noisy"

Tobin:
"postulating representative agents whose optimizations generate macroeconomic behavioral equations - this is a considerable sacrifice of the essence of much of macroeconomics"

again about models

2010-03-06T20:57:00.001+01:00

As I have recently spoken here about models in life, I was thinking about the fact that each economist has undoubtly at least one model whose papers he adors and whom he always cites in his speeches and papers. As an economist-to-be, I have been continously looking for words and thoughts that could inspire me, those things you read or hear and agree with them in the most profound sense. The literature I am reading for the moment consists of works of very well-known macroeconomists. Apart from the fact that I am looking for inspirational ideas for the thesis, I am searching for a complete flow of thinking besides the words, graphs and regressions.

A potential one seems to be Carmen Reinhart - at least I love her research areas, her vertical way of expressing things and last but not least, she is the most appreciated woman-economist.

One of her short speeches on the crisis issues is here.

krugman's question (and answer)

2010-03-05T20:42:00.001+01:00

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/05/debt-is-a-political-issue/

the explanation seems plausible. at least at a debate level! but it turns to the old story: politics is everything! and indeed it is, isn't it?

economics again

2010-03-03T16:53:00.001+01:00

as i have started to better define my thesis subject, i experience mingled feelings about economics in general. sometimes i have the impression economics is the science of everything as economic theory can mainly explain everything we experience in our daily life.

but there are moments when, exactly due to the fact that economists gained this over-confidence that they can argue on whatever it happens, i have the feeling that this science, by some called `alphabet`, can very easily reach its limits.

it's rather frustrating, but, in the end, i suppose, challenging to yearn for transforming your idea into a model. the safe way, if there's no innovative model, is to describe stylized facts (when you have data) and conclude that "further developments should follow".

anyway, developing a relationship with economics is complicated (like one of the status alternatives we have on facebook), it's like a love-hate relationship, like i guess all of them are...

about models

2010-03-02T22:41:00.002+01:00

I was thinking about how we find our passions. It's either a matter of luck, personal seeking or models. Lately, I have discovered that I had missed getting inspiration from the people around me. I must admit descovering models in the ones you meet is like taking a deep breath of fresh air. Of course, "modelling" the others also offers a good feeling. But as we are continously improving humans, being inspired, encouraged or just amazed by special people we meet throughout our lives gives a unique sensation - it's like regaining wings or a special form of self-fullfilment.

Lately, I have met two or three persons who decisively helped me in refinding the passions I forgot about. I have started working on the master thesis - reading a lot and looking for a feasible and interesting approach of recent developments in capital flows & global imbalances. I have an intense feeling of redescovering my old passion of breathlessly reading...

plans for the future

2010-01-29T11:43:00.004+01:00

i have just finished the master exams, a master thesis is ahead on capital flows & global imbalances in developing countries. so, what's next? revising literature, looking for data, working on panel data, typing in latex. thus, finally some real research! in the meantime, applying for the doctoral programme, the ultimate challenge!

last year and a half has definitely been the most intense in terms of intelectual challenge and personal refinement. always looking for the best, i have experienced both ups and downs. now things seem to settle down and a nice mountain is ahead for climbing!

word from keynes

2010-01-14T16:28:00.002+01:00

[economics is a science of thinking in terms of models joined to the art of choosing models which are relevant to the contemporary world]

i did not use to be a fan of keynes' writings, but it seems that a lot of relevant ideas come out of them, beginning with beauty contest and so on...

"the only thing we have to fear...

2010-01-13T17:04:00.003+01:00

... is fear itself" (Roosevelt). this comes as a very strong conviction regarding the panics, the cause of the crisis and the crisis itself, some personal experience... sometimes fear is not that bad - it's a matter of defending for any human being, but in great proportions and especially in aggregate it seems to be the mechanism that keeps a crisis going, being it financial or personal!

the link between economics and psychology is definitely thrilling...

reloading...

2010-01-06T17:17:00.005+01:00

this year i promise myself to write more and on more different subjects. from macroeconomics, financial crisis and political issues my interests enlarged to psychology, behavioral economics, sociology, etc. therefore, this period i am in a continuous "getting-in-love" mood with respect to the "social" part of the "social science" definition of economics. university issues keep me strongly connected to the "science" part. anyway, economics has a so very wide sense that it may be about everything.

my challenge remains to develop "a good nose for interesting questions" and interesting questions may appear in every domain which consequently may be related to economics. such a nice science, isn't it?

from now on i will reserve myself the right to write even in romanian, depending on the mood and on the subject.

best regards to everybody and may you have a happy new year!

my 2010 resolutions

2010-01-01T15:59:00.004+01:00

1st of January 2010 - listening to nina simone, drinking my warm tea, sharing the room with my dearest, refinding and refining myself...

this year i have decided to write down my resolutions: because i need to make promises to myself, because i feel this new year sounds and looks better, because new challenges are ahead, because i rediscovered the power of lists.

it's nice to hear more or less original new year wishes, it feels like we get back to basics and we share the same wishes and fears. the best we could get is to be healthy and not lose our faith, all the others come along...

it feels good to look back and rewind your accomplishments, but it feels even better to put down your dreams and start working on what you wish! in this way, God listens our prayers and is together with us for our life projects...

therefore, my 2010 resolutions are as it follows:
- be happy and fearless
- take care of myself and the others
- write as often as possible
- find my career niche - define my research subject
- challenge myself - work on my first research paper
- dream and follow my dreams
- prioritize!
- work on my synthesis skills
- exercise my intuition as often as possible
- trust
- discover and rediscover
- practice painting and photographing
- read and fill in my to-read list

[to be continued]

back to politics

2009-12-07T19:44:00.004+01:00

Yesterday, I voted for the Romania's president in Geneva at the Permanent Mission of Romania. Today, the results have shown that I did vote for something. Not for an idea, a person or a belief that things will change from tomorrow. But just for avoiding that previous communists take the country back to their hands. Of course, a change it is and has been waited for a long time. But how can you vote for a change which takes you back twenty years ago?!

I understand that we are in crisis, that people lost their jobs, that young people don't care because it seems that they will not live the changes they could vote for and that old people dream about old communist days and "have time" to go voting. I understand that socialist propaganda is what Romanian citizens like and what they need at least for now. But in the end, Romania in which maybe I want to come back cannot be built on short term promises, but on long term projects of development. The economy cannot catch solid bases on short term "get out of the crisis" ideas - we cyclically need crises for next generations to live better (Schumpeter's creative destruction I believe in).

Yesterday, I did not vote for a person, maybe for the team which is behind, even if all are subject to corruption like all political teams. And it feels good to see that the 70000 votes which make the difference come from abroad - this means we still care about Romania in which one day we would come back.

proof on utility function

2009-10-24T21:29:00.003+02:00

the second apple always tastes worse than the first one. conclusion: the utility function is concave over gains! q.e.d.

p.s. studying behavioural economics is like finally looking at reality! it took some economic studies to finally accept that we are not rational consumers!

macroeconomics state

2009-09-19T22:41:00.004+02:00

Here's a comprehensive list of articles on macroeconomics' actual state. And also a list of apparently promising young macroeconomists with some reasonable arguments regarding the profession.

back to work

2009-09-19T21:13:00.002+02:00

Back to work to HEC Lausanne. Nice elective courses, a lot of international and macro and behavioural econ. New room and nice landscape. New duties and challenges. I have always enjoyed beginnings and rather disliked routine. I think beginnings imply taking responsabilites and establishing priorities and this may make light. Or at least this is how it works for me.

I have started thinking about the upcoming research topic. Before, I was thinking about monetary economics, now I have rather doubts about it as things are continuously changing in this area. As if they are not changing in every area.

On one hand I would like to do some empirical research mainly business cycles related. On the other hand, I would like to discover more in detail the modern macro and financial theories that consider the behavior of individuals. Here, I do not refer to the simple RE models, but rather the more incipient ones that try to explain the crisis. Anyway, I am more and more aware of the tradeoff data availability/ interesting models.

In the meantime, I made a new acquisition: Animal Spirits by Akerlof and Schiller! At first site, a "new"-new-keynesianist approach, I'll see if it still surprises me in any way. And I am challenged by some work with time series in Stata.

Bonne rentree!

august post

2009-08-13T16:55:00.003+02:00

still out of the econ blogs' world, still trying to get as far as possible from the computer, thus from the internet and therefore from information. even if i have very little idea about how the crisis goes on, i can feel it or rather try to feel it in romania. in the meantime, i read a lot of non-econ books and take a brain pause for the next year which, starting from september, sounds like very appealing.

here the crisis is a big paradox. the gdp was announced to have fallen with about 9% in the second quarter of the year in comparison with last year's second quarter. can we feel it? not really, people are spending maybe as much as before, there is no (at least) public bankruptcy and people are not that desperate. the government is doing a "great" job to keep everything under control: they tried to cut down some expenses and remove some not useful jobs in the public sector but the budget still proves to be blocked.

thus, publicly, everything is under control, but inside everybody is on fire. and all this seems to be reasoned by the electoral year. i cannot stand this economies that lie on troubled political will.

anyway, naively(!!!), i still hope for this crisis to renew what is to be renewed and create structures that will make the economy stronger and healthier for the future. and this to be on real grounds.

i'll be back in september!

what i like/dislike about romania

2009-07-27T09:13:00.004+02:00

what i like:
- old folks with whom i share the same beliefs, needs and fears
- the old/new Romanian books that inspire me
- churches that remind me of Someone
- certain people who surprise me with their kindness
- my bed and pillows
- the sea and the old parts of my home town
- the sky is different
- reading "old dilemma" on the street
- remembering good old times
- it gives incentives
- i can still enjoy it with goods or bads

what i dislike:
- i cannot push the button that makes the green light appear and me cross the street
- streets, infrastructure
- the old part of my home town is falling down
- it gets dark too soon
- politicians and the kind of stupid discussions around/about them
- that every question has the answer: the budget is blocked, no project is working anymore (and this is not necessarily due to the crisis but to the politician will - electoral year!)
- everything is too expensive with respect to earnings
- that everybody says it is a mess & nobody can or wishes to improve things

to consider

2009-07-10T08:43:00.001+02:00

http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/brown08/brown08_index.html

two interesting news/approaches

2009-05-03T12:49:00.002+02:00

The first comes with the new award of John Bates Clark Medal that goes to Emmanuel Saez for an interesting field of macro research - the increase in income inequality - see here and here for details.

The second is another(?!) way to approach the causes and consequences of the actual crisis that is related more or less to the behavioral approach. More exactly, the comparison of how people react to the risk of flu this days and how they reacted to the panic created by the 2007/2008/2009 crisis. See here for details and speeches of the initiator of this approach, Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England. Thus, once again we have an argument that economics is such an interdisciplinary science.

(to be continued)

The economy's on prozac

2009-04-14T09:09:00.003+02:00

For an Econosofia trademark project, for an inspiring professor, Lajos Bokros, and for a bunch of intelligent people to share your knowledge and beliefs with.

For details: Economics through a Macrofying Glass 2009

notes on bailout by nationalization

2009-03-29T12:26:00.005+02:00

Extremely speaking, nationalization implies the government taking over every bank permanently and turning banking into a government service. There are also less extreme cases of temporary or partial nationalization.

How does nationalization really work?

Pros on nationalization (The Economist: “better a temporary ward of the state than a permanent zombie”):

- explicit government ownership is better than ad-hoc “deals” (injection of liquidities – welfare transfers from the taxpayers)
- raise capital rapidly for the insolvent institutions
- taxpayers will earn when the shares’ market value of the nationalized bank will appreciate
- debt holders are bailed out, except from the unsecured ones who will lose and, in this way, the market discipline will be recovered (and the problem of the moral hazard solved)
- solves the toxic asset problem (one possibility: through bad banks under conservatorship)

Limits on nationalization (Bernanke: [nationalization] “is when the government seizes the bank and zeroes out the shareholders… we don’t plan anything like that”):

- from necessity to obligation (contagion risk): if a bad bank is seized, other weak banks’ liabilities will start running
- uncertainty (whether nationalization or not) is costly: debtholders fears lead to increasing volatility; taxpayers will receive a share of the upside but also inherit the risks
- difficult to design incentive contracts for managers hired in nationalized banks
- the government might get attached to banks they control
- nationalized banks would have a competitive advantage over solvent, less supported banks

Cons on nationalization (Myron Scholes is in favor of nationalization "as long at it lasts just 10 minutes"):

- change of managers - maybe less competent ones, political interests & bureaucratic management
- at the expense of owners that lose everything
- banks’ unreliable assets are hard to value – impossible to know how much capital they need and expensive to provide it
- all over the world examples prove that nationalized institutions are less efficient than private ones
- any nationalized bank would be forced to reduce its activity because not that many risks will be taken and this could make the actual downturn even worse

(part of a group presentation on the propagation of the crisis and its management, march 2009)

a good remark from dani rodrik

2009-03-11T23:04:00.005+01:00

"The economics profession doesn't take an argument seriously until the argument can be laid out with a well-specified model that respects accepted standards of modeling.[...] Maybe the problem is with those standards of modeling, but other fields within economics have been much more willing to adapt themselves to behavioral thinking, or the fact of missing markets, or the role of market failures. So what is wrong with macroeconomists?"

I would say this is a good remark from Dani Rodrick. I really admire theoreticians that are consistent with their beliefs whatever happens. If not they may lose credibility (like politicians migrating from a party to another). But, I suppose in crisis times, being flexible and balanced is an attitude to appreciate, even if this in-between approach may lead sometimes to rather not concrete solutions. And this openness does not mean moving from a fervent free-markets fan to an almighty-government believer approach. But rather admit flaws and look for alternatives to fix them. All this, in my humble opinion, just to cite Denis.

greenspan's last view

2009-03-11T20:13:00.001+01:00

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123672965066989281.html

in crisis' times, back to basics

2009-03-03T21:12:00.004+01:00

these days, i reserve my time (due to university tasks) to read basic literature on macroeconomics (BC & co.) even more than keeping track on "recent developments of the crisis". today i read Mankiw - "a quick refresher course in macroeconomics" (1990) and Blanchard - "what we know about macroeconomics?" (2000).

instead of answering to questions, these two readings kept making me posing questions. on the other hand, i did not find a lot of new things, just the history of macroeconomics told from two not too different points of view. still, it's interesting to understand the evolution, the limits of theories, basically confronted with in times of crisis.

For instance, Mankiw obviously underlines the distinction between applied and academic macroeconomists. If the second ones moved from theory to theory looking for improvements all the time, the first ones, the applied ones, "have not substantially changed the way they analyze the economy". I suppose that this distinction rings a bell to the actual situation and raises once again the problem of macro research that does not hold in data.

so, it holds in theory, but does in hold in practice, or the other way around?

sad but true

2009-02-14T22:02:00.002+01:00

http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/02/13/europe/bribery.php?page=1

bribery - a problem of vicious circle! if you bribe, the one you bribe gets used to it and so on... the solution, i suppose, like for all things that have to change, is a matter of "wisdom of crowds" (a must on the to-read list, by James Surowiecki) and of course of game theory and, also, time inconsistency. the solution is not in the hands of the government (which/who, not to forget, is a bribery-receiver), nor in those of the civil society/press and so on. it's much more complicated as we talk about a positive sum game. first step - clearly the change of the health care system!

p.s. it would be interesting to see what the theory/experience says about eradicating a black market, in general.

fiscal stimulus: pros and cons

2009-02-11T18:35:00.007+01:00

figuring out arguments for fiscal policy (from right and left):

John Cochrane (Chicago):
http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/john.cochrane/research/Papers/fiscal2.htm

Robert Barro (Harvard):
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123258618204604599.html

Paul Krugman:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/26/opinion/26krugman.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Greg Mankiw:
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/02/my-preferred-fiscal-stimulus.html

and an argument for the state of fiscal policy research: http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/28/on-the-failure-of-macroeconomists/

p.s.
and an opinion with which i agree: http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2009/02/the_alternative_to_econoblogge.cfm#list-comments

thinking out of the box

2009-02-09T20:17:00.006+01:00

i've just changed the perspective. still, i don't know for how much time.

instead of looking for the ideology that brings the better (!!?) solution to the actual situation, i'll try to "think out of the box". this means considering the different perspectives (chicago boys, neo-keynesians, binary economics, libertarians, etc.), but looking for economic and scientific (as it is possible) arguments, that means learning economics and not politics from this whole great "experiment".

i think the actual situation asks the politics to get involved. at least in a period of crisis, government should have its voice. and i agree with each ideology bringing its own (feasible) arguments. in fact, it's quite interesting to compare lists of causes, stimulus plans and predictions of different ideologies. in the end, what's important is how everything goes on. for example, the difference financial regulation / overall regulation or the lessons of the history but considering change of circumstances. see barry eichengreen. thus, i would opt for trying to understand the mechanisms of this whole phenomenon and put apart ideological and economic arguments.

finally, i believe the cause of how the global economy looks like is rather a question of moral hazard and irrational agents. and of a "black swan" which kind of sent signs that she would come up (not a "black swan" anymore, huh?!).

debates to follow

2009-02-08T15:16:00.002+01:00

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/2824

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/blanchard_roundtable/

http://www.leighbureau.com/theme.asp?id=1032

opinion coming from the right

2009-02-05T23:22:00.003+01:00

"economic nationalism" - a new(?!) threat as an effect of the crisis. the arguments come up to balance the current and from-wherever left opinions.

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13061443&source=hptextfeature

as i am, myself, in an "ideological crisis", today i borrowed from the library: f.a.hayek - la route de la servitude and eamonn butler - l. von mises!

hoping for an ideological equilibrium... too ideal, isn't it?

are "people" the most addictive "goods"?

2009-02-03T12:43:00.004+01:00

a theory that fits my beliefs these days and the discussion i had with denis. just to escape from crisis, stimulus plans, etc. theories:

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/11/gary-becker-thinks-the-most-addictive-thing-is/

back to black swans (revelations?!!)

2009-02-02T13:08:00.006+01:00

a convincing conference - with taleb and kahneman. more than inducing the idea that all the maths we are inoculated with is more or less useless, it convinced me (once again) that behavioral economics is a domain to discover.

moreover, it made me think about the moment when all these new theories (taleb's one included even if it is a theory about anti-theorizing) are being produced i.e. today. they are fortunately (??) sustained by the actual crisis but also come up in a moment where, i have the feeling, the theories based on tones of math reached their limits.

this idea may come in contradiction with my belief in maths' power, but it's not like this - i believe to be fooled, like any human, by what kahneman describes as being the need of humans for models to benefit from, even if they prove to be wrong. he tells, in fact, an old story of the swiss army, apparently, (i assume not to remember the exact story but the message remains quite straightforward): some soldiers where proud to have a map. but they met some other guys telling them: "this is not a map of the alpes but of the pyrenees". the explanation comes from kahneman: having a useless map contributes to confidence and builds people's reliability to go on. this is like with the financial models: people know they are not accurate (they don't consider the black swans) but they believe in them as we need predictions to go further.

thus, a must to be watched:

http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/kahneman_taleb_DLD09/kahneman_taleb_DLD09_index.html

and, also, the website of the theory of behavioural economics who won the nobel prize: http://prospect-theory.behaviouralfinance.net/

lessons of the last months

2009-02-01T21:21:00.003+01:00

long time to write about myself. exam session and now long holiday. for two more weeks i'm on my own. and then the results and a new semester to follow. these days i'm following what happened in the last months. at first, i try not to enter a lot in technicalities.

but coming back to recent lessons... this semester at hec lausanne i've found my limits which is the best proof that i'm on the good track and now i'm planning how to overcome them. then, i've learned more or less how to be on my own: good friends rest always there but we are all alone with our hopes and disillusions. i've also learned that i should better focus and be selective.

now, i'm looking for incentives to go on. i'm taking a break but with serious thoughts. i do things for myself drawing up to-do-lists for my future.

for a good lesson of economic history of crisis

2009-01-30T12:32:00.001+01:00

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/01/22/business/economy/20090123-recessions-graphic.html

for a good lesson

2009-01-27T18:13:00.001+01:00

http://bucurenci.ro/2009/01/tinerii-din-ziua-de-azi/

politics and economics in romania

2008-12-17T19:36:00.004+01:00

i've stayed tuned for the recent changes of the political scene in romania due to elections for the parliament. at first i really feared the possibility of the social-democrats' regain of power (the left-center). then, apparently, the final results showed a slight gain of the liberal-democrats (the right-center), but still not the majority: a third goes to liberal-democrats, a third to the socialist-democrats and the other third to the national-liberals and the hungarian party in romania. so a coalition was needed, even if i considered it not sustainable in romania.

the first positive surprise was that the president named a democrat-liberal to be a prime-minister and, moreover, a guy who is supposed to know economics - theodor stolojan. then, the biggest surprise: "the partnership for romania" coalition signed by, unbelievable, the right and the left. immediately, the negative surprise: the prime-minister cannot afford this coalition and gives up. obviously, at first i thought this could happen only in romania. finally, the leader of the center-right becomes prime-minister.

this evening i read another good news: the ministries of finance and the one of the economy go to the center-right... now, it depends on how technocrats they will be in the end, but i see it as a good sign. then, of course the parliament will vote for or against the structure proposed by the named prime-minister. but as the coalition represents more then three quarters of the parliament, i suppose the proposed "government" will be accepted. or, at least, i hope for a fair play. the hope dies the last...

p.s. to be more precise, my first impression when i heard about the coalition right-left was that this will not hold in romania; and i think i also felt the right cannot believe in a partnership with the left, strictly speaking from the doctrinal point of view... on the other hand, if i think better, such a coalition, strictly theoretically cannot but help romania... we'll see if they will really work for this!

on rewards and prizes

2008-12-12T23:17:00.005+01:00

Tonight there were awarded prizes for the most representative people for Romania: actors, journalists, businessmen... The person of the year is Aurora Simionescu, 24 years, researcher in astro-physics. She is part of a team from University of Bremen, Germany, that found out a part of the world that was never known before. At the end of her speech she pointed out three important things/wishes with which i definitely agree:
1. Romania to be an integrated part of the Europe and not just economically;
2. next prizes to be won by scientists from Romanian research institutes and not just by Romanians;
3. the award the most important scientist to be given.

Especially the second wish made me smile and be sad in the same time...

By the way, the most admired person in Romania is apparently the president Traian Basescu!

liberals and the crisis

2008-12-07T12:31:00.002+01:00

looking for how the liberals view the crisis:

anonymous liberal on the root of the crisis: http://www.anonymousliberal.com/2008/10/financial-crisis-in-nutshell.html

from roosevelt to obama: http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/11/17/081117fa_fact_packer

not necessarily liberal view: macroeconomics lecture - how the financial crisis affects the real economy: http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2008/12/lectures_on_mac_6.html

quote of my day

2008-12-06T11:52:00.000+01:00

A letter is an unannounced visit, and the postman is the intermediary of impolite surprises. Every week we ought to have one hour for receiving letters, and then go and take a bath.

Friedrich Nietzsche (1844-1900)

about women in the economics field

2008-12-05T22:52:00.001+01:00

to discuss more about it!

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/pub_display.cfm?id=3556

reading on...

2008-12-05T19:47:00.004+01:00

recession, liquidity trap, deflation, Friedman's "helicopter drop"; definitely "we" are living a recession and now the problem is not any more the inflation - they talk about saving the (american) economy by printing money, which until now i only saw as a bad measure; it's also interesting how the theoretical "ricardian equivalence" is now reminded in practice.

see also: http://blogs.ft.com/wolfforum/2008/12/central-banks-need-a-helicopter/

to be continued...

bad signs (??!$)

2008-11-27T19:21:00.005+01:00

http://blogs.ft.com/wolfforum/2008/11/a-time-for-humility/

bad signs for what i consider my future job. it is still debatable if all this mess in the international economy could have been predicted and, in consequence, economists are quite incompetent. still, when what you learn is the basis of prediction, your beliefs get somehow touched.

we'll see, as no credit for prediction, these days...
no matter what, the "black swan" is still a feasible explanation!

on low expectations and recessions

2008-11-24T22:59:00.003+01:00

it has been a long time since i wrote down here. university takes me all the time. considering the difficulty, the quantity and the competitiveness, i still continue to be highly motivated. in this way, i've lately developed the idea of low expectations - work hard, look for incentives, have low expectations - in order for the negative shocks to go to zero and the positive shocks to go hopefully up. this is the main joke for us, the economics students in lausanne :)

this is, mainly what happens now on the international markets. as the big "black swan" of the crisis and now of the recession was not predicted, now everybody behaves and believes in consequence: expects what is worse, does not take risks and waits for better days...

now, do not consider that my academic life is in crisis and i expect what is worse. what i wanted to say by this comparison is that when the bias between expectations and what really happens goes up, psychologically your expectations go down. the comparison is definitely not perfect -in my case, in order for the expectations to go up and the bias to reduce, all depends on me and also somehow on the sample i am part of :)

thus, now i go back to work. unfortunately, the markets still have to wait, considering that predictions for them are quite bad....

good saying

2008-11-21T19:47:00.004+01:00

Never give up, for that is just the place and time that the tide will turn. - Harriet Beecher Stowe (1811-1896)

p.s. i'm back soon!

contradiction (or complementarity)?

2008-10-30T22:36:00.003+01:00

It's a little bit of contradiction/complementarity between what i actually do at university and my new book.

At school we talk about rational expectations in macroeconomics, estimators in advanced econometrics and tests in applied econometrics - we learn how to take into consideration the improbable (the noise or the Lara Fabian's music - bien-connu example of M.Ringuede - University of Orleans), how to measure it and expect that on the whole everything tends to normality. Good arguments, even if the models work only with specific assumptions which don't reflect particularly the reality.

In "The Black Swan", the author, even if specialist in derivatives and measures of risk, assumes that our knowledge is limited and the improbable is the one that actually makes the history, while we have to admit that we cannot predict it. He says that we should admit that the "Black Swan" could appear any time and trying to predict its appearance makes us even more ignorant.

I always thought that good arguments give credit to good theories. Now, it's like i feel that the Black Swan could come up everywhere, any time (see the current crisis) even i fool myself with learning how to use the tools to measure the probability of its appearance. Still, it's a challenge to try to modelize the reality and the future, sometimes with the cost of specific assumptions.

from The Black Swan

2008-10-28T22:25:00.001+01:00

... "the business world: inelegant, dull, pompous, greedy, unintellectual, selfish and boring". :)

2008-10-20T08:16:00.001+02:00

Sometimes a good economist, like a good columnist, succeeds not by making a point before everyone else, but by making it better than anyone else. (from The Economist on the Nobel Prize winner).

phd comics

2008-10-19T21:38:00.002+02:00

source: http://www.phdcomics.com/comics/archive.php?comicid=1077

belief

2008-10-18T08:53:00.003+02:00

as i see things happening, i tend to believe that this crisis is not at all one based on manque de liquidite, but on manque de confiance. and apparently this confidence cannot be recovered from one day to another. the governments have met to say to the world and to the markets that things are under control: the first day after - the stock market went up with some considerable percents but then they fell again. explanation: in my humble opinion (trademark denis' thoughts), confidence on markets has long way to recover. thus, i think treating this crisis with liquidities does nothing but harm the market in the long run. it's like when you go to doctor to treat your migrena and he gives you pills for constipation. am i wrong?

interesting assumption of warren buffett, the one who earns a lot from this crisis: in a century the dow jones raised from 66 to 11,497, so on long term the market is increasing. so it is worth playing on the market. his belief: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful!

for a pertinent reason

2008-10-18T08:48:00.002+02:00

of why krugman won the prize: http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/2463. written by dixit, the one that some thought could have won the prize with krugman as he helped to the development of the new trade theory.

for a very good analysis

2008-10-16T00:07:00.001+02:00

... of what is going on on the markets and what it is to be predicted (in romanian, for the world):

http://stoica.hotnews.ro/the-day-after-tomorrow.html

i'll talk about this later on...

and the prize goes to...

2008-10-13T19:36:00.003+02:00

Paul Krugman. Yeah! This morning, this funny thing happened to Mr.Krugman!

I found the news before the macroeconomics lecture. He got the prize for the new trade theory i learned about exactly one year ago at Orleans, for improving the well-known models of Ricardo and then HOS.

Now what strikes my mind is what anutza told me yesterday: if you want to prove something in economics, you just fix the variables you don't care about and, in this way, arrive to what you looked for. Still, an econometrician would definitely not agree. :) Anyway, i think a model can always be improved and done more complicated :) moreover, revolutions in this huge domain of economics could still apear!

As for the implications on the actual world economic situation, there are, no doubt, some implications... we shall see the results...

Do you speak economics? Yes, I do!

2008-10-11T14:37:00.004+02:00

Econosofia for me? The greatest challenge and responsability. The supreme motivation and moment when I truly defined myself. Is that "if it wasn't, i wouldn't be here".

It means rebuilding a bold idea, investing in wonderful people, projects through which we hope to change the world. It means meetings prepared one night before, tasks and to-do lists, the convincing approach to persuade your partners that your bold idea worths their support, stage fright before the beginning of a project and talking about Econosofia with a trembling voice. And all of this, so that, in the end, you have the recognition through the smiles of your team mates and that wonderful feeling of accomplishment.

Econosofia is knowledge and the determination to improve. This is what defines every student that passes or has passed through the Econosofia school. It’s the Noica's “you never know who gives and who receives”.

how-is-the-crisis-affecting-us-?

2008-10-10T21:35:00.002+02:00

http://blogs.reuters.com/ask/2008/10/08/how-is-the-crisis-affecting-you/

indeed we (i.e. students (in economics)) are hedged at this moment, even if effects on real economy will probably appear soon. looking through some comments on this article, we realize how this meltdown affects people, from the high to the middle and low class. it looks like as the risk aversion goes down, the degree in which they are affected goes up...

we are not paying anymore CEO salaries. we are old and retired and they are entirely too greedy.
getting another job, cutting use of water, electricity, gas consumption, eatting out, switching to lower cost internet, phone and TV service, sold one car.
eating out less, delaying capital purchasing, planning less and shorter vacations, reducing gifts at holiday time, wearing older cloths and not replenishing wardrobe, washing my own car, cutting our own lawn, raking our own leaves, cleaning our own gutters, painting ourselves instead of hiring a painter, consuming more leftovers, making sure dishwasher and wash is full before doing and worrying about our retirements, our children and our financial stability.
my credit card had expired, and for that i won’t buy clothes, electronics machines, travel and heath/education.
we’re not buying any Christmas gifts this year. instead we’ll spend about half of what we did last year and donate that money to charity - no expensive electronics or clothes for us. No winter vacation. we’re taking our lunches to work, and cooking dinners at home (and eating left overs the next day). [...] Our goal? To go back to a much simpler life. Reuse, recycle and rely on nothing but cash. No frills.
This crisis is affecting my peace of mind. I used to think all these central bankers, economic theorists, and outrageously paid CEOs were really super-duper smart and were too smart to let a crisis like this happen. Now that I know they are just human like the rest of us and that they can make mistakes, leaves me feeling nervous and agitated.

romania and the crisis

2008-10-09T23:45:00.001+02:00

read the revista22 interview with bogdan baltazar for a reasonable analysis!

good question: why don't we learn about economic crises from the big economics books?

2008-10-09T10:08:00.004+02:00

take a look on this post on freakonomics and to the one related to it in economic principals. they point out a good question: why the famous economists who wrote the famous books on economic principles don't dare to talk about economic crisies.

all i can say about economic crises is related to the big crash in 1929, the oil crisis in the 70s and then the developing countries crises in the 90s. each of them had at that time quite obvious causes: declick on the financial markets, contagion and then effects on the real economy. the declick had itself a cause - the error of not considering (on purpose or not) that the market couldn't support the risk that some guys were taking (this in the case of the 90s' crises i studied a bit in the past). and then, what to do in order to avoid them, who are the guilty ones, how to reglement the capital market that we have learnt it's the most closest to the perfect market, thus free market, and so on... - questions that receive mostly non-measurable and clear answers.

on the other hand i understand the principles of economics are based on some basic simple models who consider the risk of crises only in the noise (error term) and that, on average, we do not expect tomorrow any crisis. thus i think that the one who will find the model who takes into consideration the probability for crisis like a nice and colourful variable will deserve the nobel prize. what happens these days offers, no doubt, a lot of incentives to find that model. but it will take some time for the market to settle down and after that to find it. so, it's quite not realistic that we (our generation) will catch that nobel prize, but who knows??!!

in the end, i just point out what Walter Bagehot* (1826-1877) said about crises, but, at that time with no solution for today:

[...] one thing is certain, that at particular times a great deal of stupid people have a great deal of stupid money…. At intervals, from causes which are not to the present purpose, the money of these people – the blind capital, as we call it, of the country – is particularly large and craving; it seeks for someone to devour it, there is a “plethora;” it finds someone, and there is “speculation;” it is devoured, and there is “panic.”

* more about him in economic principals

and a nice youtube video from the Mankiw's blog on the explanation of this meltdown:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_o4IcNbfPMA&eurl

about writing or the reason for blogging

2008-10-06T21:04:00.002+02:00

from [dilema veche - andrei plesu]:

writing is not putting on paper what you try to find out, it's the search itself. expressing yourself in written words is the guarantee of the fact that you understood what you wanted to. you cannot understand something before you express it. [...] the writing takes you farther than your own thoughts.

hedging these days

2008-10-02T19:05:00.003+02:00

my mathematics' professor here at hec lausanne (m. schuerhoff) was telling us a few days ago how we (as students in economics/finance with some "little" differences) apparently are highly more hedged in our investment in human capital than any other guy investing on the capital market. he was referring, of course, on our investment in mathematics (for economists) knowledge, assuming that in the future the financial and economic world, on the whole, will need more and more maths stuff in order to measure the risks and thus find solutions to reduce them.

on short term, i suppose he's right: we do not get touched by any risk. even if still, on short term, our ROI is not so measurable/attainable. but on the medium & long term, shall we be credible as saviours (/policy-makers) of such predictable (??!) crashes?

could the role of maths increase at a such high scale that the regulatory measures on the market will not be needed? in other words, research from a mathematical perspective could save the market, the stock market so that it remains free? liberals/libertarians, any mathematical solution to this mess?

MIT lectures on matrix algebra...

2008-10-01T22:32:00.000+02:00

... is gold: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7254479149869222300.

just enjoy!

quote

2008-10-01T21:48:00.003+02:00

At first sight it is curious that a subject as pure and pasionless as mathematics can have anything useful to say about that messy, ill-structured, chancy world in which we live. Fortunately, we find that whenever we comprehend what was previously mysterious, there is at the center of everything order, pattern and common sense. (B.H.P. Rivett, 1978)

... and as i was saying some days ago, common sense is quite rare these days. maybe we just got too more of it, or not...

p.s.: quote discovered in Sydsaeter and Hammond's maths book.

global electoral college

2008-10-01T18:35:00.002+02:00

i've just taken a look over http://www.economist.com/vote2008/?sa_campaign=publisher/september/gec/ and apparently the "world" votes for obama. in europe, the highest percentages for mccain occur in slovakia (46%) and poland (35%).

romania is 79% for obama! thus my country represents my option! which is good!

on the other hand, i wonder how an the economist's survey (as the ones who vote are, obviously, the economist fans and, thus, obama fans) could not end up with, averagely, a pro-obama result.

soros on financial crisis

2008-09-24T21:46:00.002+02:00

"Although a recession in the developed world is now more or less inevitable, China, India and some of the oil-producing countries are in a very strong countertrend. So, the current financial crisis is less likely to cause a global recession than a radical realignment of the global economy, with a relative decline of the US and the rise of China and other countries in the developing world. The danger is that the resulting political tensions, including US protectionism, may disrupt the global economy and plunge the world into recession or worse."

(http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/24f73610-c91e-11dc-9807-000077b07658.html)

i just feel that soros is right. indeed i always sustained that the markets should fix themselves, considering what aids like the IMF's had done in the context of previous crisis. thus, i believe that the moral hazard is a risk that should not be taken. what happens today seems to be the proof that this was/is not the case.

on the other hand, i am not sure this is just a problem coming from the markets hoping that if something happens, the state/IMF/regulatory institutions on the whole will be there to save them. i feel that what happens could be associated to a "boule-de-neige" effect or "vicious circle" effect. it seems like the financial institutions accepted the comprimise of not saying anything just because there were bank accounts greedy of the money the markets' circumstances offered them. and if they had said something, would this have changed anything?

in fact, the remaining question is what is the real cause of what happens today (see one of the last articles on the Thomas Friedman's blog), between all those reminded since this story began. as for predictions, we'll live them (hypotheses to be tested)...

first week, first impressions

2008-09-21T22:01:00.004+02:00

the first week has already passed; i met all my professors and my TAs and i drew some conclusions about what the expectations will be - higher, much higher than for the bachelor level and obviously much higher than in romania.

what means a higher level: from how professors approach us to the level of students - most of them passed through one or two years of job experience, some of them are from US and apparently there's at least one who took preparatory summer courses for PhD at NY University and has plans for a PhD at Berkeley. so, on the whole, people are different in a highly motivating way. moreover, my colleagues are in general very open, having a positive attitude; not at all the nerd-type or the you-cannot-get-a-word-from-him type. the same kind are the 2nd year students: the same interests, future plans and way of approaching things.

as for the level of expectations - high: well-established sylabus for every course: assignments, mid-terms and so on. the greatest challenges: econometrics and macroeconomics (both advanced) and the two required softwares for econometrics: stata and mathlab. which was to be expected. math and microeconomics will be, hopefully, subjects of refreshing.

thus, the work is beginning and i'm totally positive about it.

first contact with the economic staff at HEC

2008-09-13T16:23:00.004+02:00

friday i took part in one of the seminars organized by the Institute of Banking and Finance, affiliated to HEC. the subject: the relation between innovation and asset pricing. the speaker: leonid kogan (MIT). when i entered the lecture room, there were only men. :) and once again i realized i'm preparing to enter in a men's world. when i told this story to denis, he pointed out: didn't you realize you live in a men's world, ... led by women? :)

apart from this, the lecture was good. in the room, there were only post-phd guys and the questions were more than pertinent. i was not convinced the speaker was the MIT kogan in person until i searched for its photo on the internet. and the man who lectured was really kogan. that's because i imagined a much older and not so open-minded professor.

what the paper tries to demonstrate is that innovation brings an increased production, on the whole, but, while new, innovating firms profit from the technological progress, the older, existent firms lose from it. in this way, the gains and losses that occur affect the investors' interest to possess those firms' assets and, thus, the asset pricing. the econometric model was quite tough for the insufficient set of instruments i dispose of, but still comprehensible to a certain degree, thanks to mr. ringuede's econometrics course i got last year in orleans.

even in a lot of moments i thought that what i heard was chinesse, in the end i realized it was quite an inspirational and motivating session, but also an asking-questions-to-myself opportunity. if phd were, it would be a great defy. for the moment, i conclude with: what brings inspiration and motivation is good, no matter what.

at first i thought it was a joke

2008-09-08T17:36:00.006+02:00

"We’re going to spend $1 billion to fix the Georgia between Russia and Turkey, not the one between South Carolina and Florida." says Thomas Friedman in his column "Georgia on my mind".

Apparently, diplomacy is not a matter of rule, things are far more complicated. Too complicated even for a chess player. This reminds me of the harm FMI financial aids made to developing countries. Indeed, it's not exactly the same. It's not the fact that the US has not enough money to support any country aftermath. Even if it has a crisis status. It's the fact that by helping, you do not provide consciousness that wrong steps are not to be made. Especially when it implies vital aspects like energy and "second cold war"imminence.

It's complicated. And, as for Black Sea energy security, it's like my professor says: what happens is the same as if you would throw everything you have on your desk and then put again everything in order. It takes time. And far more time if it's about confidence reconstruction. Now we talk about post-conflict security which is not at all a "bla-bla" issue.

"If we were serious about weakening both Putin and Putinism, we would be investing $1 billion in Georgia Tech to invent alternatives to oil — the high price of which is the only reason the Kremlin is strong enough today to bully its neighbors and its own people" says the american journalist. quite a defy, isn't it? to defeat russia by innovating alternatives to the energy that gives it power...

[to be continued]

time of wonders

2008-09-05T20:47:00.005+02:00

these days i'm all alone in a new city, new room. because of this temporary loneliness, i feel a fear i try to overcome: today i went to discover the university, the shopping center; i bought the map and tomorrow i'll try to discover part of the city. but still all these with fear (sundancer kiddo's blogpost on fears was inspirational). and it is not at all a fear of the beginning, i do not usually have this kind of fear...

i've just taken a look on the essay i wrote on motives to come back to romania and i wondered: if i really think in terms of risks and returns, i shouldn't have these fears. on the other way, one explanation could be what mother usually reminds me: you are never farther of what you dreamed of than when you accomplished it. but, it is not still accomplishment, not even the beginning of it. it's just the beginning of a step i decided to take in order to accomplish something bigger which, for the moment, remains undefined.

and related to coming back to romania; before leaving romania i spent a night with my parents near cluj at a guesthouse with my brother and his family. and both him and his wife told me they think coming back to romania would be difficult, if not impossible, after some years spent in a western country. and now after my family left back home, this thought - it is difficult to deal with it.

but, finally, i take all these fears and inadequacies in my purpose as a step in order to define better what i look for. i really hope the courses, professors, colleagues will make me a good impression. and after all, as anutza says, people will come, it is no doubt!

p.s. i didn't and i don't intend to transform the blog into a dialogue with myself; i do consider these thoughts are part of my formation and i have to deal with them.

p.s.2. next step: concentrate on important stuff - revise the books i have to read for the master program and plan my life in detail from very short to short and medium term - that's the challenge for the moment!

waiting to be surprised

2008-08-29T20:38:00.002+02:00

Tomorrow, I'll already be on my way to Switzerland. Everybody asks me about expectations and this makes me wondering what they are. Finally, I realize it is just a matter of expecting to be surprised about the university, room mates, class mates, professors, Switzerland as a whole. I am already a bit surprised about the dialogue the university has with future students like me. While the other universities I could have opt for do not say anything. Thus, a good sign for a good option. Motivation is high even if I am a little bit tired after this summer during which I could not say I realized much. Except from spending time with my parents and some close friends. Anyway, great challenges at horizon!

returning home after graduating abroad – a matter of utility maximization

2008-08-15T17:06:00.001+02:00

“There is no such thing as a free lunch”! This idea, usually rejoined by liberal economists, was associated by Greg Mankiw with common decision-making processes requiring trade-offs between one goal and another. Making up my mind about what the destination would be after graduating a master program abroad is a decision I do not usually make after a coin flipping. It reminds me of two correlated concepts used in microeconomics and social sciences, in general, those of opportunity cost and maximization of utility. The opportunity cost notion refers to what I lose when making a choice between desirable, but mutually exclusive alternatives. In this case: the cost I would pay or what I would lose should I come back.

Moreover, all of us crave for maximizing our utilities, taking into account the scarce resources of which we dispose. In this specific case, the utility maximization means a degree of life satisfaction as high as possible, considering our education, experience, income, information, networks, family, friends. But, unfortunately, decisions and opportunities we face cannot be so easily modelled after an algorithm because a lot of other variables interfere.

On my view, education is the most important factor in our development as human beings and then as professionals as it offers us the biggest return on investment. Although I consider that the formal education I received in my home country has a major contribution to my formation, after one academic year in France, I know that, for the moment, the postgraduate education could be better acquired than in Romania. For this reason, during the next two years, I will be part of an MSc in Economics program at the University of Lausanne, Switzerland. What do I hope to accomplish by this? I do expect to become a good professional in economic analysis and to develop the needed skills for areas of activity I would be highly motivated to work in.

So, after graduation? In pointing out my motives for and against returning to Romania, I use as a starting point the following assumption: I shall complete my master studies with at least one professional experience abroad. I truly believe that, only by comparison with western countries, we can develop the consciousness of how we should take benefit from our competitive advantages and, in this way, build something in Romania. Thus, the question is whether coming back after gaining some experience on the western labour market.

Firstly, looking at the Romania’s economic situation, I appreciate it is improving: it has one of the first economic growth levels amongst the EU-27 countries and it is one of the main attractions for investors in the Central Eastern Europe. Due to this progress, in a couple of years, Romania will advance even more. Coming back home, I could contribute to the enhancement of the economic and maybe academic environment by implementing what I will have learnt from abroad. Romania needs managers and I share the deep conviction that a good manager is, first of all, a good professional.

On the other side, the Romanian economic growth relies mostly on consumption and sectors such as real estate and retail. Romanians are still basically consumers. Two decades before they could not afford to maximize their utilities considering their resources, but just taking the little choices they were given. Romania still imposes limits, especially institutional ones and those concerning mentalities. I want to live and work in a country with well-established institutions that offers me stability and opportunities to develop and innovate. A society that encourages me and respects my merits is the key in order to perform at my highest capacity. Even if it is a country with high potential, Romania suffers from a crisis of mentalities that could be overcome only from the inside; that means from us, its citizens.

More particularly, the western labour market is more stabilized than the Romanian one, still reflecting transition shortcomings. For instance, if until now, the labour demand was higher than the supply, this year the high number of graduates, consequence to the transition to the Bologna system, will reverse the situation. Despite this, the Romanian labour market assimilates better a national having a master degree and professional experience abroad than an expat who cannot perceive the Romanian environment in the same way. Moreover, investments in Romania will continue, due to its emerging market attractiveness, so the labour situation will also improve.

As for the options after graduation, I seriously consider working within an international organization or a multinational company that has or will be planning to open an office in Romania. This could give me the chance to come back and represent it in my home country. The advantages: experience abroad, Romanian language, knowledge of the Romanian environment. An alternative would be to represent Romania abroad on diplomatic purposes or in the private sector. In this way, I could contribute to the improvement of the foreigners’ perception on Romania. The disadvantage: loss of contact with family, friends and the Romanian environment as a whole. Consequently, every option with its opportunity cost.

Another motive that what would determine me to come back is how a “second hand” citizenship status would affect me. In Romania I will, undoubtedly, always feel at home, while in another country I will confront with cultural and ethnical limits. However, after one year of living in France, I know that integration into a new society, with new rules and a new culture is a challenge. I am convinced that our limits are where we fix them so nothing is impossible as long as our actions are those that maximize our utility.

Finally, I will refer to how important it is to keep equilibrium in life. Our life satisfaction, our maximized utility does not refer only to a high income or level in the hierarchy of an organization. It is what fulfils us most. I believe that success is a process we cannot accomplish on our own. We succeed together with our family, friends and partners. At last, it is a matter of “learning by doing”. It all depends on my openness to make profit from the opportunities I will meet, but also desire to overcome the restrictions that any society could impose on me.

If it comes to return to Romania or to rest abroad, it will definitely be a personal choice I will make considering all the variables involved. I assume that any decision like any investment I make has its risk and a proportional return. What is more, between coming home and staying abroad there will always be an opportunity cost because, as we know, “there is no such thing as a free lunch”.

history in these days

2008-08-12T10:39:00.003+02:00

searching latest information on the south ossetia war: google maps - georgia does not have a map, but still the russian troops are located; wikipedia - every point of what all this conflict implies is put down, from earliest history to what happens today; facebook - we join groups like supporting georgia or against russia; blogspot - laurentiu wonders if dancing with the bear and finally concludes it is better to tame it - indeed very good blog post!

today, thanks to the internet, the history is written in a terrible different way. the updates are a matter of seconds: the georgian port city of Poti is invaded by russians, saakasvili was urged to get out of Gori due to a suspect helicopter and so on. everybody adheres to opinions like: Russia will kill us; PEACE, PEACE, PEACE!; Georgia risked too much, but what Russia does cannot be accepted; this cannot happen in the 21th century!; while the Olympic games are held in the glorious China (still with the Tibet conflict), Russia plays its military game, etc.

today we live the history, so we must stay tuned...

about writing

2008-08-09T17:22:00.004+02:00

these days, having to write a for & against essay on my future and receiving some feedback for it, I realized my writing is rather weird. I do not write for the others or in order to be understood. I write for myself. While writing, I do not care about how the others perceive my flow of thinking. I just write and at the end, whether i want or not, i look for feedback.

I find writing a terrible method of learning. If you are not able to talk/write about certain things, you definitely do not know those things. Another issue is that, in order to be understood, it's terribly necessary that your flow of thinking is for the others as logical as it is for you - tough! and it is just a matter of style and words to be written in the correct order.

So two targets on the board:
1. read what I write as if it was written by another person
2. practice, practice, practice! so be aware, my dear blog!

p.s. it's terrible writing words in english in a french style!

thank you

2008-08-07T20:22:00.004+02:00

econosofia, for remembering me where my best true friends are!
denis, for remembering me that our limits are where we fix them!
sibiu, for nice moments, nice benches to sleep on, nice people and way of living!
monica, for the reassuring discussion we had!
alex for always being here!

the spirit of principled pragmatism

2008-08-04T11:17:00.003+02:00

from The world in 2008 - The Economist:

Ban Ki-moon, secretary general of the UN, suggests the principled pragmatism (PP) as an panacea for what happens in the world (from conflicts to global warming and so on). He points out the example of the "Asian miracle" whose success "owes much to smart choices and rigorous execution". He relies his argumentative discourse on open, fair, non-discriminatory trading and financial systems, underlining that business-as-usual does not cut the principled pragmatism anymore, ultimately based on "social and economic advancement of people". As for MDG, Ki-moon believes PP means "working hard to deliver what has been promised instead of offering more high-minded words about what ought to be done" - this is generally true, but who does assume this?

keywords: development, reducing poverty, free international economy, political promises, solutions

there's no free lunch (Friedman trademark and GGH 's quote)

2008-07-30T10:29:00.008+02:00

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/29/theres-no-free
-lunch-or-money/

I wonder if this experiment would be made in Romania (in the big cities), would the result be the same?What would happen if in Romania, someone would stand on the sidewalk with a paper in his hands on which it'd be written "if you ask me for a 10 ron note, i will give it to you!"?If the percentage of people not responding to the offer was high, would it mean that we are on the way to improvement? Are we aware that there's no such thing as free money?

p.s. GGH - Georges Gallais Hammono - the finance professor at Orleans - his favourite quote: "there's no free lunch", while moving his arm from the horizontal to the vertical position.

p.s. i made a little experiment within my closest two friends: mum said - no, because I do not trust people on the street; alex said - no, because I do not usually ask anything to anybody. quite close to there's no free lunch conscience...

and the final destination is...

2008-07-27T18:50:00.005+02:00

... switzerland, lausanne, UNIL - HEC - MSc in Economics. why?

- because it is switzerland
- because it is quantitative economics
- because there is a good macroeconomics laboratory
- because it is difficult, thus a challenge
- because it is a HEC and its network (Paris, Montreal) is quite precious
- because there's still french, but great opportunities to learn "finally" a foreign language (english and french are musts) : german and italian on the list
- because it is 30 minutes from geneva
- because I received good recommendations for it
- because it's not the easiest choice, maybe the taughest, but I always choose complicated ways to achieve something, so nothing's new
- because I'll attend great courses on "finance and banking" with top world teachers

to be continued.

why to read mankiw's blog from highschool

2008-07-26T21:01:00.003+02:00

Advice from mankiw for aspiring economists: Use your summers to experience economics from different perspectives. Spend one working as a research assistant for a professor, one working in a policy job in government, and one working in the private sector.

How much i would have liked to read this in high school, or at least at the beginning of the bachelor... instead i did volunteerism and i learnt a lot. thank you, econosofia!

At last, everything is translated into "cost of opportunity" :)

p.s.: finally i found the supreme motivation for math: "take math courses until it hurts." thank you, mankiw!

critical masses

2008-07-24T10:46:00.003+02:00

on the to-do-list of what to research: the theory of critical masses as part of the how-to-influence-the-others trips and tricks; and very interesting how it is applied in the economic theories. to be continued.

p.s. discovered in the speech of M.Bortun at the VIP Summer School on Rebranding Romania!

joke about ...

2008-07-19T08:36:00.003+02:00

a journalist and a cameraman wanted to see a lion in Africa; but when they came too close to the lion, it started to run towards them and then they also started o run to save themselves. the cameraman stopped suddenly and took from his rucksack his Nike shoes and put them on; then, the journalist asked him: are you stupid?the lion will eat us! no problem! I want to have a comparative advantage, to have my nike shoes on :)

in work: about the causes of the oil prices on a rocket ing trend

2008-07-16T14:50:00.007+02:00

consulting my blog roll, i stop to the mises institute blog - interesting title, new/old idea: is the oil price rocketing subject to speculation or is it the answer of demand/supply relation? as far as i am concerned, i had formed the idea that the oil prices is undoubtedly subject to speculation, as the market could hardly permit such huge variations. but then i remembered the time when crisis happened in a world where speculation was just a game at its first step. so maybe the answer is somewhere in between the market answer and the speculation result.

let's follow what the article states:

Tony Hayward's theory: "the data clearly show that high prices are really caused by economic fundamentals."

Arguments:

- demand is growing because of the subsidies of the oil prices in countries like China, India and oil-producing countries, but in regions like North America and Europe the consumers have already understood that they cannot support such high prices and thus reduced their consumption; this last fact is pure economic theory in a liberalized economy where the subsidies so not find their place

- supply - 1. when it can follow the growth of demand (free market), the supply should grow, as the demand is reduced by the high prices and theoretically they should meet somewhere between; facts show that the supply has risen, but not enough.

to be continued

these days

2008-07-08T20:00:00.003+02:00

i don't stop thinking about what's my next destination. i'm searching points of view, pros and cons, arguments. i know i'll be ok wherever i'll go, but still this is probably my first tough decision: lausanne, bruxelles, paris, strasbourg? if I judge by the toughest and probably the most challenging is lausanne, if I judge by the city, the country, the next opportunities is bruxelles, if I judge from an easy life and habits point of view is paris. some say bruxelles, the others offering little chances after, others say lausanne - switzerland rules, bien sur, others paris - "sorbonne is famous". and me i'm trying to see what's the best and what I want and i want all of these in one university and in one city. tough decisions, high expectations and still waiting from some answers. a la prochaine!

my actual mood

2008-07-06T14:46:00.000+02:00

"Réfléchir, c'est-à-dire écouter plus fort." - Samuel Beckett

in curs

2008-05-26T16:30:00.003+02:00

N-am mai scris de mult... Examene de aproape o luna! zilele astea lucrez la o ultima proba de licenta (aici in Franta, caci ma mai asteapta si licenta din Romania) - o dosar de presa care tare m-a facut sa-mi pun intrebari despre o groaza de lucruri - tema vasta, dar extrem de provocatoare pentru mine, in formarea unei idei de ansamblu :

Entre la lutte contre l’inflation, le ralentissement de la croissance et un euro fort, la zone euro quoi doit-elle choisir? Analyse d’ensemble de l’influence de la crise américaine sur l’économie européenne.

O sa revin aici cu concluziile. Deocamdata, din dorinta de a afla ce-i cu vestita "economics of happiness" (dorinta dezvoltata in urma lecturarii blogului lui Andrei - apotlog.blogspot.com), am dat peste un citat tare fain pe care imi promit sa-l analizez mai incolo:

"Those who say that money can't buy happiness don't know where to shop" (un asa-numit Anon)

[to be continued]

cat de keynesisti (inca) suntem

2008-04-20T21:06:00.002+02:00

Marea diferenta clasici-Keynes tine de raportarea la moneda ; daca cei dintai o vad pur si simplu ca pe un mijloc de schimb, ca pe un intermediar intr-o economie de schimb, keynesistii o vad ca pe bogatia in sine, mijlocul de detinere a puterii de a dispune oricand de bogatie. Pentru clasici, moneda este o chestiune neutra, un intermediar. Pentru keynesisti este bogatia in sine, intrucat prezinta cel mai inalt grad de lichiditate, ceea ce, spun ei, compenseaza costul de oportunitate masurat prin rata dobanzii.

In ceea ce priveste populatia (nu neaparat investitorii) cred ca in Romania (in Franta, de exemplu, clar se simte diferenta) inca ne raportam la acei bani de la saltea iar aceasta conceptie clar ne blocheaza intr-o mentalitate deloc sanatoasa, cred eu…

Binenteles, un etat de lieu mai aprofundat poate defini argumente in privinta keynesistilor (motivul tranzactiilor – platile curente, cel al precautiei – al ciclurilor economice, oarecum, si, daca largim aria la piata financiara, motivul speculatiei), cel mai clar fiind cel psihologic – sa ai bani pentru zile negre. Si totusi, in contextul dat keynesismul ramane o extrema...

p.s. m-am referit aici doar la un anumit punct din diferenta clasici-keynesisti si nicidecum nu am incercat sa concluzionez care mentalitate este mai "buna"; ci doar sa punctez ca, cred, raportarea la moneda in conceptia "banii de la saltea" nu este tocmai benefica, si nu ma refer numai la ideea de investitie (care ar putea crea mai "multa moneda"); totusi, ma mai gandesc la problematica asta sa incerc sa gasesc mai multe argumente...

despre summit (e la moda)

2008-04-18T10:24:00.003+02:00

Andrei Plesu (Dilema Veche):

O nouă dilemă scutură din rărunchi opinia publică: a ieşit bine chestia cu NATO sau a ieşit prost? Ne-am ales cu ceva sau ne-am chinuit degeaba? Bosumflaţii de toate culorile cred că am fost păcăliţi. Am fost un simplu hotel, un loc de pasaj pentru potentaţii planetei, „maidanezii“ americanilor, cum proclama într-o emisiune contondentă un mare maestru al analizei politice. Ba, din contră, am intrat în istorie, zic alţii, ceva mai bine dispuşi. Preşedintele nostru a stat la masă cu toţi ceilalţi preşedinţi, s-a văzut niţel şi Marea Neagră, ziarele şi televiziunile lumii au pus Bucureştii pe lista subiectelor importante. Da, dar s-a exagerat cu pregătirile şi cu măsurile de siguranţă. Am fost provinciali, am măturat curtea ca gospodinele leneşe, de frica musafirilor. Se poate, dar important e că totul s-a desfăşurat fără incidente. Pînă şi circulaţia automobilelor a fost mai fluentă ca de obicei. Cît despre pregătirile speciale dinaintea vizitei, nu fac ele parte oare din tradiţionala, străvechea, încăpăţînata noastră ospitalitate? Nu e normal să bagi gunoiul sub preş cînd eşti gazdă? Consecvent cu titlul rubricii de faţă, ar trebui să spun că lucrurile nu stau „nici aşa, nici altminteri“. Şi totuşi, cred că profitul prevalează. Am reuşit, fie şi pe baza unor culise crispate, să funcţionăm cu un anumit firesc. Nu ne-am făcut de rîs, am dovedit că putem gestiona în mod decent evenimente de anvergură, că, la o adică, ştim să facem ordine, să dăm o masă, să surîdem afabil. Traian Băsescu a rîs camaradereşte şi cu Bush, şi cu Putin. Am dat o probă de normalitate. Eu, unul, sînt mulţumit. Pînă la urmă, numai două lucruri mi-au lăsat un gust prost: re-slobozirea promptă, post-summit, a haitelor de cîini vagabonzi şi alegerea vinurilor pentru dineurile oficiale: „legendare“, dar prea dulci pentru mîncărurile de-alături.

Comment :

Evident, nu am fost la Bucuresti de summit, dar din povestile alor mei am inteles ca s-a simtit mult acel « bagat gunoiul sub pres », acea « gateala de suprafata » de dinainte; la Constanta, de exemplu, oamenii nu aveau voie sa iasa pe strada intr-un anumit interval orar, ceea ce mi s-a parut cel putin deplasat, dar pana la urma probabil la noi numai cu solutii extreme merge.

Apoi summitul a avut loc si au inceput comentariile ; am aflat de rezultate din Courrier International ; evident Romania, Bucurestiul apareau mereu sub forma : « la Bucuresti s-a hotarat… », « Romania a fost gazda… » ; Romania nu a fost subiectul, ci doar contextul, peisajul. Si totusi, nimic de rau, nici o gafa, ceea ma face sa cred ca, vorba lui Plesu, « am dat o proba de normalitate » si se pare ca am trecut de ea ; ceea ce imi da un semnal de bine dinspre Romania ; asta insa nu face ca francezii sau studentii straini de aici sa stie mai mult despre Romania decat stiau inainte : Dunare, tzigani, Dracula, tara fost-comunista ; si de fapt, nici nu ma asteptam…

Ceea ce imi lasa un gust mai prost decat ignoranta oamenilor de aici par rapport a Roumanie este teama ca acel gunoi de sub pres sa se vada atunci cand musafirii nu sunt anuntati cu surle si trambite, ca de data aceasta…

Les Francais – toujours socialistes

2008-04-18T10:17:00.002+02:00

In timpul seminarului de politici economice mi-am dat seama de explicatia (socialista, dar pertinenta) tendintei mereu socialiste a francezilor: oamenii s-au obisnuit ca statul sa le dea, sa poata soma 3 ani pe bani deloc rai, sa se planga de un somaj ridicat (8%), nu ca pe vremea socialistilor cand « traiau bine ». Franta este o tara care permite multe : SDF-isti (sans domicile fixe) care nu traiesc rau si cum nu le convine ceva se supara si striga statului sa-i ajute, educatie aproape gratuita, un nivel de trai deloc rau, recompensarea cheltuielilor cu chiria (de pana la 50%). Franta este deci o tara in care traiesti bine caci Etat-ul vegheaza pentru tine.

Chestia asta cu traitul bine ramane insa relativa ; de exemplu, aici la Orleans, securitatea (nevoie de baza in piramida maslowiana) nu este deloc satisfacuta ; politia nu se vede intr-o tara in care oamenii care nu vor sa munceasca, ci mai degraba sa fure – fenomen care, clar, exista peste tot, numai ca aici pare sa fie incurajat.

Cat despre somaj – clar este un motiv de ingrijorare, dar sa vedem motivele : francezii sunt multi, statul ii ajuta mereu, mai vin si strainii foarte frumos primiti, oricare le-ar fi motivul sederii pe taramul gaulois, educatia este ieftina (cea mai mare parte din buget se duce pe educatie – lucru deloc rau, dar se pare si cu efecte negative), dar (poate gresesc) nu imbie foarte mult la crearea unei elite puternice ; si uite asa se creeaza un cerc vicios si apare somajul.

Solutia ? un Sarkozy rau care evident nu (mai) este iubit de popor ? schimbarea de mentalitate ? un alt Etat (cu majuscula, sa fie clar !)…

Nota Bene : educatia in Franta ramane insa o experienta pozitiva (en moyenne/ in medie) : diferentierea economie – gestion se resimte si face foarte bine (la ASE evident nu exista, dar cred ca i-ar face tare bine) ; se formeaza o gandire critica prin prisma metodei si a incentive-urilor – nu este vorba de ceva foarte clar, dar se simte totusi diferenta ; ai acces la carti mari ca Mankiw, Varian, etc. Pe de alta parte accesul la biblioteca este restrans la 10 ore in zilele lucratoare si 4 ore sambata, ceea ce nu este deloc motivant si clar pas du tout practic. In plus, esenta se restrange tot la 8-10 ore/saptamana, deci este si multa pierdere de timp (in orar sunt 25 de ore), care clar te trage inapoi in motivatia de a te specializa in ceea ce iti place…

motivatie

2008-02-28T13:27:00.003+01:00

Motivatia acestui blog este in principal definirea unui discurs structurat, coerent, argumentat despre ce citesc, ce se intampla in lume, reflectii si revelatii despre orice in general, orice si nu chiar orice, ce imi place, ce ma motiveaza, ce imi doresc, ce sunt, ce vreau sa fiu. Dar mai presus de toate astea este o incercare de conturare a unui discurs si mai ales al unui flux de idei argumentate pe teme economice, politice, diplomatice. Este o incercare de definire profesionala, o incercare de a pune cap la cap ce stiu, ce aflu, cum percep lucrurile, ce intrebari imi pun. Este o incercare oarecum tarzie, caci am mai avut de cateva ori, cel putin, ocazia de a face asta : prin revista econosofia, prin sesiunile de comunicari stiintifice, prin blogul econosofia, sau pur si simplu in laptopul meu, de fiecare data cand am incercat sa inteleg chestii si mi-am pus intrebari.

In primul rand motivatia asta este inspirata de episodul econosofia, cel mai frumos episod de pana acum : cu oamenii-mi cei mai dragi, cu realizarile cele mai importante, cu cunostiintele cele mai solide. Am incercat sa coordonez acest club cum am inteles mai bine, dar din pacate, de multe ori am avut senzatia ca ma pierd in coordonare si ca uit sau nu mai am puterea de a spune ce cred, cum concep lucrurile pe care le dezbateam. Insa am stiut sa ascult si sa invat de la ceilalti, de la fiecare in parte ; de fiecare data ma uimeau cu argumentele lor si de fiecare data ma convingeau in crezurile lor. Da… asta este unul din regretele mele in ceea ce priveste econosofia : ca nu m-am implicat mai mult in fluxul de idei, ca nu aveam timp sa citesc articolele din revista, desi incercam sa-i conving pe altii sa scrie, ca simteam de multe ori ca nu am argumentele necesare pentru a sustine sau combate o idee.

Cred foarte mult in puterea argumentului – e ceea ce ii face pe oamenii speciali pe care ii cunosc persuasivi, deci puternici : parintii mei, proful de mate din liceu (domnul caragea), pirvulescu in putinele dati cand isi facea prezenta, si alti cativa profi de la snspa cand ajungeam la cursuri si deci imi gaseam ragazul sa-i ascult, dna horobet la investitii internationale, oamenii din econosofia, domnul bokros, liviu voinea, sever voinescu si mircea vasilescu (la proiecte sau de cate ori am ocazia sa-i citesc), plesu, magdalena boiangiu si alti cativa din dilema, articolele din the economist ori alternatives economiques. Din toate astea am invatat mult. Si am ajuns o insetata de cunoastere, cu sentimentul ca vreau mai mult de la mine : sa fiu capabila sa am un discurs adecvat si argumentat despre ce am invatat si despre orice relevant, in fiecare moment. Asta inseamna informare permanenta dar si un feedback la aceasta informare.

Si acum imi dau seama cat de multi imi lipsesc oamenii din econosofia. Este fundamental sa ai cu cine povesti de tot ce se intampla, sa stai sa reflectezi, sa-ti gasesti argumente si sa ai puterea sa-i combati pe ceilalti cu ele. Pana acum am ramas la stadiul de ascultat, reflectat ; credeam ca stiu prea putine (sau nu destule) pentru a spune ce cred – fals ! niciodata nu stii destule ; doar printr-un dialog (deci reciproc) poti oferi si primi idei, argumente, informatii.

Acesta este deci scopul : un dialog cu mine insami si cu cei care isi vor gasi ragazul sa ma citeasca. Pentru moment imi propun comentarii din ce citesc, mici analize, in speranta ca, in timp, o data cu inceperea masterului (studii economice europene, macroeconomie sau politici economice) voi putea avea un discurs analitic si totodata sintetic asupra chestiilor care ma intereseaza si despre care am ce sa spun.

p.s. as putea sa-mi reprosez ca acest prim post contine redundant cuvantul "discurs"; totusi, in spatele acestui target care se numeste "formarea unui discurs" sta, in primul rand, o forma de apprentissage. a bientot!